Pitchfork Populism

THE POLITIQUAKE THAT IS RESHAPING AMERICAN POLITICS
   

The political earthquake of 2016 resulted from a convergence of political forces and trends that evolved over many years. They were based in demographics, propelled by previously dormant or disengaged constituencies, and aroused by archaic clarion calls that had been relegated to our country’s antiquated political past. The combined effect was a campaign that reawakened social, cultural, economic, and legal divisions that inflamed passions on both sides, and will continue to reverberate during Trump’s tenure and into the post-Trump era.

The evolution of the ten trends and dynamics that will be discussed created the political environment on which Donald Trump capitalized. They are as deep-seated as our national identity, and as contemporary as our rapidly transforming media channels and challenges. They stem from the diverse racial and ethnic composition of the American people, and lead to increased engagement across the spectrum of constituencies in the political process. They reflect the workings of government and political campaigns, from the role of policy and principles, to the prospects for bipartisanship, and the impact of transparency and accountability. They include major shifts in public opinion on trade and globalization, and the roles of state and federal government. And they culminated in the voter predilections that led to Trump’s 2016 victory, which appear to have been incrementally eroding since then, except among his devoted base.

Some of these political dynamics may have been overlooked or minimized in the past, which is at least one of the reasons why conventional wisdom did not envision a Trump victory. But their impact on the election’s outcome mandates that they can no longer be dismissed, negated, neglected, or ignored either during an election or in governing. They are now vividly on display, as prominent indicators of the flow of American public life. They have combined to unleash Pitchfork Populism, a movement of disenchanted people who are motivated by fear, resentment, and animosity to resist change and repudiate recent social evolution, while vilifying those who they consider to be “others.”

These dynamics are evident in voting behavior. People who voted for Trump did so for many reasons, such as their interest in the issues that Trump raised, the passions that he stoked, their genuine affection toward Trump, their genuine disaffection for Hillary Clinton, and their disenchantment with both political parties, and other reasons. These are legitimate explanations of voter behavior, and all Americans would benefit by understanding them. At the same time, the forces that culminated in Trump’s victory do not amount to a permanent transformation of the electorate. As evidenced by the multiplicity of explanations for the outcome, the 2016 election was more of a “perfect storm” in which an assortment of key variables converged at a unique moment. The many contributing factors and emotions indicate that the outcome was propelled by political activation of previously dormant constituencies who lashed out with pent-up force, rather than the result of a long-term structural realignment of the electorate.

The same dynamics that enabled Trump to win, and that drive his tone of governance, can also be harnessed to achieve different outcomes in the future, as long as they are consciously recognized and strategically managed. The pendulum of American politics has a history of swinging in one direction, being halted by the gravity of consequences and new political forces, and then swinging back along a different, sometimes unpredictable, course.

It has become a national pastime to try to understand the 2016 election, the forces propelling the Trump administration, and their implications for policy and governance in the years ahead. The lessons learned from the election are useful in recognizing the dynamics that evolved in recent years and contributed to the outcome, as well as new forces that have emerged and will influence American life for the foreseeable future. They provide frameworks with which to interpret and critique Trump’s and his administration’s conduct and decision-making. They will also be useful as we evolve past the Trump presidency.

Each of the dynamics that played out during the 2016 election, and that are now in full force, had been gradually building for years. Some of them have deep roots and are the latest incarnation of debates and cultural challenges that date back to the 1700s and our country’s origins (e.g., regarding our national identity, racial and ethnic tensions, bipartisanship, and federalism). Others emanate from more recent national conditions, political campaigns, global circumstances, sociocultural divisions, and technological innovations (e.g., democratization of the political process, new media issues, accountability mechanisms, and the globalization of trade).

As these dynamics appeared and gained traction in recent years, some lawmakers may have wistfully and wishfully minimized their importance, attributing them to passing fads and transient waves of popularity. Other decision-makers may have chosen conscious, even calloused, disregard for the popular will. Sometimes, legislative bandages and stopgap half measures were applied to temporarily forestall prominent issues, and mute demands from vocal constituencies. More sustainable or comprehensive solutions to popular calls for action were sometimes intentionally deferred, either by optimism (believing that half measures would be sufficient and that the problems would just go away), or by neglect (believing that the social, cultural, or electoral forces that were asking for attention could be disregarded without ramifications).

Regardless of their origins, each of the currently dominant forces and trends has profound implications and will have an ongoing impact, to one degree or another, on the country’s sociocultural and sociopolitical landscapes for many years. The ten dynamics are useful in interpreting Trump’s comments about the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, and his antagonism toward NFL and NBA athletes; his consistent and repetitious statement of falsehoods and his demonization of the media; his transactional approach to decision-making and the regressive policies at his EPA, Justice Department, and other agencies; his tariff battle and his Muslim-focused travel ban; his actions against immigrants and his separation of migrant children from their parents; his destabilization of alliances and his deference to Vladimir Putin; and many other actions and comments by Trump and his administration that raise concerns.

Obviously, these emergent factors will be most prevalent in the executive branch, to the extent that Trump and his aides are able to manage political capital and strategies to exert their will. However, their impact on the executive branch might be short-lived, since the 2020 election could result in a 180-degree change of direction, depending on the outcome. If Trump continues on his path of irascibly offending, irritating, and alienating broad swaths of the electorate, then the likelihood of a 2020 shift to a successor who would reverse course will increase commensurately.

The legislative branch is likely to be subject to the new forces and trends for longer. This is because the sociocultural inclinations that fuel them play out differently in various localities across the country, some of which might adhere to Trumpian positions for a long time. Considering that legislators sometimes secure very long tenures through many reelections, these forces may become intractable in some districts, and continue to be voiced for many years to come, even if the number of adherents diminishes.

The judicial branch might be impacted the longest, since US Supreme Court justices and federal judges receive lifetime appointments. Naturally, this will depend upon the number of Supreme Court justices that Trump is able to appoint. The Trump administration has already appointed an extraordinary number of judges to federal district courts, courts of appeal, and other specialized courts.

Any attempt to contemplate the long-term implications of Trump’s presidency requires a healthy dose of speculation, since Trumpism has placed our country in uncharted waters, with a presidency for which there is no precedent. Similarly, new countertrends and forces might emerge that cannot be forecasted, since there is no template for the circumstances that are now exerting their influence on American society and government, which might precipitate new countertrends. Reactions and responses to Trumpism might be equally unforeseeable and sui generis, never before having been necessary or envisioned.

Yet, some things are certain. The emergent trends, the broader forces underlying them, and the new political landscape that they launched are very real, and they will have a sweeping impact. They will affect everything, including our national identity, our laws, our economy, and the overall stability of our society. They will continue to guide debates over virtually all areas of domestic policy, from civil liberties and environmental protection, to workforce preparation and economic growth; and from sociocultural norms and the sustainability of our social-safety-net programs, to religion in the public domain and the role of ethics in government. Their imprint will be seen on our foreign policy, from the USA’s global geopolitical and economic leadership to preoccupation with our own national security; and from the USA’s role in maintaining regional stability and peace in conflict zones to our funding levels for military and diplomatic operations.

Some of the ten dynamics and trends have already materialized with tempestuous force, weighing heavily into the outcome of the 2016 election and steering the Trump administration’s actions. Others are still coalescing, and will increasingly affect national policy, politics, laws, and society during Trump’s presidency. Just as the roots of each of them preceded the rise of Trump, each dynamic is sure to play a role—to varying degrees—in American life beyond the Trump era.

These ten American political forces provide roadmaps that will benefit the constituencies who can best harness them to fulfill their objectives. Americans of all ideologies would be well served to understand these and other dynamics and trends that are evolving in our country and swaying our shared future. One can envision that, by illuminating these forces and becoming more aware of their impact, we can find ways to improve our country, respect each other, accommodate each other’s needs, and help each other succeed in achieving our own versions of the American Dream.